Ciclo Conferencias Magistrales del 45 Aniversario
Fabrizio Ruggeri
Fecha: 27 de agosto
Hora: 12:30 pm
Lugar: D503
Resumen: The course will introduce the basic concepts of Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA). ARA is a relatively new area of research that informs decision-making when facing intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. It is a decision-theoretic alternative to classical game theory that uses Bayesian subjective distributions to model the goals, resources, beliefs, and reasoning of the opponent. It enables an analyst to express her Bayesian beliefs about an opponent's utilities, capabilities, probabilities and the type of strategic calculation that the opponent is using. Within that framework, the analyst then solves the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent that permits the analyst to maximize her expected utility, accounting for the uncertainty she has about the opponent.
Fabricio Ruggeri
Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche "E. Magenes", Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerce, Italia
